Land Use Modeling Predicts Divergent Patterns of Change Between Upper and Lower Elevations in a Subalpine Watershed of the Alps

Abstract The synergic influence of land use and climate change on future forest dynamics is hard to disentangle, especially in human-dominated ecosystems. Forest gain mountain ecosystems often creates different spatial–temporal patterns between upper lower elevation belts. We analyzed cover over the past 50 years predicted Business as Usual changes an inner subalpine watershed by using maps, derived from five aerial images, several topographic, ecological, anthropogenic predictors. historical landscape through transition matrices metrics ecosystem integrating multi-layer perceptron Markov chain models for short-term (2050) long-term (2100) timespans. Below maximum timberline year 1965, dominant dynamic was a gap-filling process secondary succession at expense open areas leading increase homogeneity. At elevations, main observed colonization unvegetated soil primary upward shift, with increasing speed last years. Future predictions suggest saturation part stronger elevations. Our research suggests role scale.